What does the increasing number of Govt-19 infections in the UK and Europe mean to the US?

The country’s daily case rate – about 55,000 a day – is less than a third of the Omigran peak, but cases are rising just as fast as when the country lifted its epidemic-related restrictions two weeks ago.

The situation in Europe has caught the attention of public health officials for two reasons: first, the UK provides a preview of what can be played in the United States, and second, something extraordinary is happening. In the previous waves, the increase in the number of those admitted to Kovit Hospital was 10 days to two weeks behind in cases. Now, in the UK, the number of cases and hospitalizations seems to be on the rise, which has shocked experts.

“So, we’re interested in what’s happening in it,” Dr Anthony Fossie, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN.

Fassi said he had spoken to his UK counterparts and they cited the rise as a combination of three factors. In order of contribution, Fassi said, these are:

  • BA.2 variant, which is more conductive than the original Omicron
  • The opening of the community, the more people attend the house without masks
  • Decreased immunity to vaccine or previous infection
A Technical description On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency reported that BA.2 had an 80% higher growth rate than the original Omicron strain, although it did not appear to be more likely to be hospitalized.
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BA.2 does not appear to cause the most serious illness – at least not in the highly vaccinated British population – and it is unclear why they will be hospitalized.

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“The problem with hospital admissions is still a bit puzzling because it is very clear that despite increasing hospital admissions, the use of their ICU beds has not increased,” Fauzi said. “So, is the number of people admitted to the hospital a true reflection of the Govt cases, or is it difficult to understand among those who come to the hospital with Govt disease, or because of the Govt?”

As the number of Govt-19 infections has decreased, the United States, like the UK, has eliminated most mitigation measures. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed the method of measuring the impact of Govit-19 on communities. The New metric – It relied on hospitalization in addition to cases and the capacity of the hospital – Removed mask recommendations for most parts of the country. States and schools have followed suit and eliminated indoor mask requirements.

“Undoubtedly, opening up the community and bringing people into the home is a contribution, as well as the overall immunity is declining, which means we really need to intervene and monitor the model here.” Fauzi said. “That’s why we look at this very carefully.”

Michael Astorhome, director of the Center for Epidemiology Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN: “It’s like a weather warning. . “

BA.2 What will he do in the United States?

BA.2 is growing steadily in the United States. Last week, the CDC estimated that it would cause 12% of new Govt-19 cases here.

Meanwhile, BA.2 is now present in more than 50% of cases in the UK and many European countries.

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Kerry Altaf, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said: “The tipping point seems to be 50% correct. “It’s only when we begin to really see that variation shifting its power in the population,” he said.

While giving a glimpse into the future of the UK, Althoff said there are key differences that affect how BA.2 plays in the US.

In the UK, 86% of those eligible are fully vaccinated, and 67% are encouraged, compared to 69% of eligible and 50% encouraged in the United States.

“What happens in the UK is a better story than we expect here,” Altaf said.

In the Netherlands, he noted that it took BA.2 about a month to beat BA1. If the same deadline occurs in the United States, it means that the variation goes out just as the immunity caused by winter omega-3 infections decreases.

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“I’m worried about that,” Altaf said. “But we were in a similar situation last spring, where we really hoped things would get better. We got a little summer, and then we curled up by the delta.”

It is important for people to understand that they can take off their masks for a few weeks, Altaf said, but as the cases increase they will have to wear them regularly.

“We can see another wave of disease in our hospitals,” he said.

Althoff would also be paying close attention Waste water data In the next few weeks.

“Wastewater monitoring is an incredible improvement on how SARS-CoV-2 can be monitored and what it does to the public without the need for any input,” he said. “Keeping our eye on wastewater monitoring is an important tool in understanding where the virus is going and whether it is increasing in terms of infection.”

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Getting ready for the next wave

Protection against the next variant should begin with vaccination.

“We must continue to find those who have not been vaccinated and vaccinate them,” Altaf said.

Fauci agreed that vaccination rates would be better for all ages, but said the current numbers are particularly bad for children. Data collected by CDC show that 28% of children aged 5 to 11 years are fully vaccinated, while 58% of children aged 12 to 17 years receive two doses of the Govit-19 vaccine.

Recent studies have shown that young children are less likely to be infected with Govt-19 when they are surrounded by vaccinated older children and adults, although younger children under the age of 5 are not yet vaccinated.

“So the way you protect them is to surround the children as much as possible with vaccinators and motivators so you have some protection around them,” Fauzi said.

Being flexible constantly is also important.

“The important thing in this massive test is that we drop all masks and controls, we must be diligent in monitoring and testing it, and be prepared to modify the relaxation of these restrictions,” Deborah Fuller said. , Microbiologist at the University of Washington.

“Our security cannot be reduced because the message that is available when people say ‘we are deregulating’ is that the epidemic is over. It’s not,” he said.

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